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A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."